Leaving California Pays Off for Many — Movers Save Hundreds, Buy Homes Sooner, Study Finds
A UC Berkeley Policy Lab analysis finds Californians who move out of state save an average $672 monthly on housing and are 48% more likely to own a home within seven years, pointing to major affordability gains.
- Average housing savings: Households who left California lowered monthly housing costs by $672 on average.
- Renter relief: Renters saw roughly a 30% drop (~$631/month) after relocating out of state.
- Home-price gap: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower (~48%).
- Homeownership gains: Seven years after moving, out‑of‑state leavers were 11 percentage points more likely to own — a 48% relative increase.
Key information
A new analysis by the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley used state tax and administrative data that anonymously follows the same households from 2016 through 2025. The research found households leaving California moved to neighborhoods where monthly housing costs — including mortgage or rent, utilities, property taxes and insurance — were, on average, $672 lower than what they paid in California ($2,376 in California vs. $1,705 in their new communities). The analysis and findings were reported in outlets including Los Angeles Times, Realtor.com and Fox Business.
Where people move and how much they save
The savings were largest for renters. Renters who relocated out of California saw rents drop by about 30%, or roughly $631 a month, in their new neighborhoods. Homeowners who left found median home prices about $396,000 lower — roughly 48% less — than the median price in the California neighborhoods they departed. Those lower prices contributed to higher ownership rates in destination areas: 60% of households in destination places owned their homes, compared with 53% in the California neighborhoods they left. (Reporting: Los Angeles Times; Realtor.com.)
Moves within and into California
By contrast, people who moved within California saw little relief: average monthly housing costs rose slightly from $2,263 to $2,277 after the move. New arrivals to California experienced larger increases: their prior out‑of‑state neighborhoods averaged $1,754 in monthly housing costs, which rose to $2,418 after moving to California (Realtor.com; Fox Business).
Homeownership and long-term outcomes
The study tracked homeownership over time and found a clear divergence. Seven years after moving, people who had left California were 11 percentage points more likely to own a home than before leaving — a 48% relative increase. By comparison, people who moved to California were only 6 percentage points more likely to be homeowners after seven years (a 27% relative increase).
Evan White, a co‑founder of the California Policy Lab and an author on the report, said the places Californians move to are “half as expensive” as the neighborhoods they left, adding that those savings help many buy homes sooner than they could in California.
Where Californians went
The study calculated net migration flows by destination state per 10,000 residents annually (2016–2025). Nevada had the largest net inflow of Californians, gaining 81 more people per 10,000 each year. Idaho, Oregon and Arizona followed with net gains of 64, 37 and 36 per 10,000, respectively. Texas, Tennessee and Florida saw smaller net inflows: 11, 13 and 4 per 10,000, respectively. Local losses were also notable; for example, Sacramento County experienced a net loss of 71,100 residents from 2016 to 2025 (269,600 departures vs. 198,500 arrivals) (see Los Angeles Times reporting and related summaries).
Who is leaving and why
The analysis found more recent leavers increasingly came from wealthier areas. Post‑pandemic movers were about 8.7% more affluent than typical pre‑pandemic movers. Many were remote‑working tech employees from the Bay Area seeking lower housing costs; some migrants achieved large gains in housing affordability even if incomes fell after moving (Los Angeles Times; Fox Business).
The study also notes housing is only one factor: groceries, gas and utilities in California run well above the national average and add to the financial pressure many residents report. Experts caution that moving helps some but is not a universal fix for affordability problems (Fox Business).
Policy context and expert views
Researchers and housing experts say the findings underscore long‑running affordability problems in California. Building more housing — especially affordable units and denser development near jobs and transit — is repeatedly cited as the key long‑term solution to reduce out‑migration and help residents afford to stay. Policy Lab authors and external experts told reporters there is no quick fix, but that adding supply could lower prices over time (Los Angeles Times).
Implications for the Imperial Valley
Economic impact
Housing affordability changes could shift demand for workers and services in the Imperial Valley. If more residents leave for lower‑cost states, local consumer spending could fall, affecting small businesses and the job market. Conversely, the Valley’s lower costs could attract families priced out of coastal cities, potentially boosting local homebuying if supply and lending conditions permit.
Political consequences
Migration flows can reshape local political priorities. Officials in Imperial County may face renewed pressure to focus on housing production, infrastructure and workforce development to retain residents and attract newcomers. State‑level debates about housing policy and funding could also affect how resources reach the region.
Social effects
Population changes can alter school enrollments, health‑care demand and social services. A sustained loss of working‑age residents could strain the local tax base, while inflows of new families could increase demand for education and childcare. If remote workers relocate to cheaper California regions, the Valley might see demographic shifts that change community needs.
Cultural relevance
The Imperial Valley’s agricultural, close‑knit communities could be affected by new residents who bring different expectations about housing, land use and services. Preserving local traditions while integrating newcomers will matter for community cohesion.
Practical applications for residents
For Imperial Valley renters and prospective buyers, the study suggests clear choices: staying in California often means higher costs and a slower path to homeownership, while moving out of state can cut housing costs and raise odds of buying within several years. Local policymakers can use these findings to justify policies that increase housing supply, expand worker training and support low‑cost homebuilding to retain families.
